18th

SB5 heading for humiliating defeat

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PPP has just released the final poll of the campaign and the results show that SB5 is headed for a massive defeat on Tuesday, if the We Are Ohio campaign gets all its voters out to vote.

Democrats are almost unanimous in their opposition to SB 5, supporting repeal by an 86-10 margin. Meanwhile there's division in the Republican ranks- 30% are planning to vote down their Governor's signature proposal while only 66% are supportive of it. Independents split against it by a 54/39 spread as well.

If this margin holds on Tuesday night it will be a humiliating defeat for John Kasich. Kasich continues to be one of the most unpopular Governors in the country with only 33% of voters approving of him to 57% who disapprove.

Poll For SB5 Against SB5
PPP Mar 15th 31% 54%
Wenzel Apr 12th 38% 51%
Quinnipiac May 18th 36% 54%
PPP May 25th 35% 55%
Quinnipiac Jul 20th 32% 56%
PPP Aug 18th 39% 50%
Quinnipiac Sep 27th 38% 51%
PPP Oct 19th 36% 56%
Quinnipiac Oct 25th 32% 57%
PPP Nov 6th 36% 59%

SB5 Opposition beginning to crush extreme law

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A new Quinnipiac poll has terrible numbers for supporters of the extreme SB5 law. Voters are rejecting the law by a margin of 25%, double the margin the same poll measured just a month ago. Voters now support repeal by 57% - 32% - the worst showing of any poll taken to date.

Across nearly every demographic, there is widespread opposition to this law. Even 32% of Republicans oppose SB5

  • Men, 54 - 38 percent, and women, 58 - 27 percent;
  • Those without college degrees, 56 - 30 percent, and those with degrees, 57 - 37 percent;
  • Whites, 54 - 35 percent, and blacks, 76 - 15 percent;
  • Voters making over $100,000, 52 - 42 percent, those who earn less, 59 - 30 percent;
  • Voters in union households, 70 - 24 percent, non-union households, 52 - 35 percent.

Voters also disagree 57 - 34 percent with Gov. Kasich's argument that the limits on union power are needed to balance the budget.

With just 2 weeks left to go, the Pro SB5 campaign might have to turn to even greater desperate measures, or try to rely on the partisan Issue 3 campaign to at least hold its minimal base of support. One thing is for certain, with so much on the line, those favoring the repeal of SB5 are not going to let up in the final two weeks.

Poll For SB5 Against SB5
PPP Mar 15th 31% 54%
Wenzel Apr 12th 38% 51%
Quinnipiac May 18th 36% 54%
PPP May 25th 35% 55%
Quinnipiac Jul 20th 32% 56%
PPP Aug 18th 39% 50%
Quinnipiac Sep 27th 38% 51%
PPP Oct 19th 36% 56%
Quinnipiac Oct 25th 32% 57%

NEW POLL: SB5 Headed for defeat

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A new PPP poll just released shows that voters are being turned off by the dishonest campaign being waged by pro SB5 supporters. The margin has grown from 50-39 in August and is nowlarger 56-36.

The new poll finds strong bipartisan support. 30% of all republicans oppose SB5. 38% of people who describe themsevles as somewhat conservative oppose SB5, along with 70% of people who call themsevles moderate. Only 28% of women support SB5.

Poll For SB5 Against SB5
PPP Mar 15th 31% 54%
Wenzel Apr 12th 38% 51%
Quinnipiac May 18th 36% 54%
PPP May 25th 35% 55%
Quinnipiac Jul 20th 32% 56%
PPP Aug 18th 39% 50%
Quinnipiac Sep 27th 38% 51%
PPP Oct 19th 36% 56%

SB5 still double digits ahead, but work to do

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A new poll from Public Policy Polling has been released

50% of Ohioans say they would vote to reject Senate Bill 5 if the election was today, to 39% who would vote to accept it. Those are encouraging numbers for pro-labor interests but when we last polled the state in May 55% of voters say they were against the bill to only 35% in favor of it. So the trendlines at least are working in favor of the bill remaining as law.

Democrats (69/21) are more in favor of rejecting the bill than Republicans (58/29) are of accepting it. But independents have moved from 52/40 opposition to it in May to 46/44 support for it now.

The odds are still stacked against SB 5 staying enacted but just like we saw in the Wisconsin recalls the anger is not there at the same level it was during the spring, which has to be a slight cause of concern for those working to reject it.

We discussed the liklihood of this tightening some time ago. Repeating our advice from that post

The bottom line -

  • We have to work hard through the summer and fall to talk to voters and convince them that repealing SB5 is the right thing to do
  • In the closing month of the election get as many people to vote early as possible
  • On election day, get as many supporters of repeal to the polls as possible

That's a lot of work. Ready for it?

Below are the polling trends for SB5.

Poll For SB5 Against SB5
PPP Mar 15th 31% 54%
Wenzel Apr 12th 38% 51%
Quinnipiac May 18th 36% 54%
PPP May 25th 35% 55%
Quinnipiac Jul 20th 32% 56%
PPP Aug 18th 39% 50%

SB5 Polling Trend

This week in education cuts

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We continue our series of reporting all the local media news related to school budget issues.

Saturday, May 14th, 2011

Sunday, May 15th, 2011

Monday, May 16th, 2011

Tuesday, May 17th, 2011

Wednesday, May 18th, 2011

Thursday, May 19th, 2011

Fridday, May 20th, 2011