A short while ago we published an analysis piece to determine which of the Senators who voted for SB5 would be up for reelection in 2012. A number of readers asked us to perform the same analysis for those House members who voted for SB5, so here it is.
The Ohio House of Representatives is made up of 99 districts. Currently the Republicans control 59 and the Democrats 40. The House is quite different from the Senate. Representatives are elected every 2 years, not every 4 and every district will be contested in 2012. Representatives become term limited after 4 terms. So with that basic understanding, let’s look at the SB5 roll call.
We can eliminate all of the Democrats from consideration as not a single one of them voted for SB5.
While SB5 was passed on a party line vote, some Republicans did cross the isle to vote no too. They were Randy Gardner (R), Ross W. McGregor (R), John Carey (R), Terry Johnson (R), and Casey Kozlowski (R). That reduces the potential total to 54 Republicans who voted for SB5.
Five of these Representatives will be term limited, they are Louis W. Blessing, Jr. (R), Courtney Combs (R), William P. Coley, II (R), Joseph W. Uecker (R) and Danny R. Bubp (R). So we’re down to 49.
One other Republican who is unlikely to be on the ballot next year is Rep Mecklenborg (R). He was recently arrested for a DUI in Indiana enjoying the company of a young woman purported to be an employee of a nearby adult entertainment establishment. It’s quite possible he won’t serve out his term, as calls for his resignation continue to grow.
That then, gives us 48 potential Republican Representatives who will be on the ballot in 2012 who voted for SB5. They are, sorted by their 2010 votes for percentage:
|District||Member||Percentage vote for||Percentage vote against|
|91||Bill Hayes (R)||47.06||52.94|
|41||Lynn Slaby (R)||49.9||50.1|
|21||Mike Duffey (R)||50.48||49.52|
|96||Al Landis (R)||51.04||48.96|
|42||Kristina Roegner (R)||51.69||48.31|
|18||Mike Dovilla (R)||52.41||47.59|
|1||Craig Newbold (R)||52.58||47.42|
|19||Anne Gonzales (R)||52.68||47.32|
|63||Ron Young (R)||53.14||46.86|
|93||Andy Thompson (R)||53.81||46.19|
|17||Marlene Anielski (R)||54.75||45.25|
|43||Todd McKenney (R)||54.99||45.01|
|81||Rex Damschroder (R)||55.31||44.69|
|85||Bob Peterson (R)||55.32||44.68|
|46||Barbara R. Sears (R)||56.34||43.66|
|86||Cliff Rosenberger (R)||59.46||40.54|
|16||Nan A. Baker (R)||60.19||39.81|
|50||Christina Hagan (R)||60.52||39.48|
|58||Terry Boose (R)||62.29||37.71|
|36||Michael Henne (R)||63.27||36.73|
|23||Cheryl L. Grossman (R)||63.41||36.59|
|34||Peter Stautberg (R)||64.81||35.19|
|38||Terry Blair (R)||67.49||32.51|
|98||Richard Hollington (R)||68.44||31.56|
|97||David Hall (R)||68.8||31.2|
|74||Bruce W. Goodwin (R)||69.01||30.99|
|51||Kirk Schuring (R)||69.2||30.8|
|71||Jay Hottinger (R)||69.31||30.69|
|84||Bob D. Hackett (R)||69.7||30.3|
|37||Jim Butler (R)||69.71||30.29|
|70||Jarrod B. Martin (R)||69.93||30.07|
|53||Timothy Derickson (R)||70.19||29.81|
|69||William G. Batchelder (R)||70.34||29.66|
|2||Andrew Brenner (R)||70.35||29.65|
|67||Peter Beck (R)||70.74||29.26|
|76||Robert Sprague (R)||70.78||29.22|
|75||Lynn R. Wachtmann (R)||72.05||27.95|
|90||Margaret Ann Ruhl (R)||72.26||27.74|
|4||Matt Huffman (R)||72.32||27.68|
|35||Ron Maag (R)||73.02||26.98|
|78||John Adams (R)||74.27||25.73|
|79||Richard N. Adams (R)||77.09||22.91|
|3||Ron Amstutz (R)||100||0|
|5||Gerald L. Stebelton (R)||100||0|
|77||Jim Buchy (R)||100||0|
|82||Jeffrey A. McClain (R)||100||0|
|83||David E. Burke (R)||100||0|
|94||Troy Balderson (R)||100||0|
14 SB5 supporters could not survive a 5% swing from their margin of victory in 2010 (2 didn’t even reach the 50% threshold due to a third party taking significant support). With only a 10-seat margin to maintain control, it is quite possible that control of the Ohio House will swing away from the Republicans and back to the Democrats.
Such a swing, could put a halt to the Governors radical agenda and turn the remaining 2 years of his first term into a lame duck effort.