With the debates behind us, and just a week of swing state campaigning ahead, the race for the Presidency is once again a close, polarized affair, between two very different choices.
Real Clear Politics has Mitt Romney falling back slightly from their previous weeks projection, with Obama favored to win 201 electoral college votes, Mitt Romney 191 (down from 206), and 146 up for grabs.
President Obama maintains a small but persistent lead in Ohio, of around 2%
The NYT calculates that this persistent lead is now projecting a 74.9% chance of President winning Ohio next Tuesday.
538 projects Obama to win 296.6 electoral college votes to Mitt Romeny's 241.4
With just one Presidential debate to go, and a little more than two weeks remaining, campaign 2012 continues to be a close affair. Real Clear Politics has the race essentially tied, with Obama favored to win 201 electoral college votes and Mitt Romney 206, with 131 up for grabs.
Despite the narrowing of the national polling, President Obama continues to enjoy a small but persistent lead in swing states, including the all important Ohio
The NYT calculates that this persistent lead is generating a 70.3% chance of President winning Ohio on November 6th
These persistent swing state leads have 538 projecting the President to win 288 electoral votes to Mitt Romney's 255.
With two days to go before the first debate, the national and statewide polling continues to show President Obama in a very strong position.
In the Electoral College, Real Clear Politics calculates that the President has expanded his lead to 265 votes to Mitt Romney's 191, an increase of 28 votes for the President over the last 2 weeks.
The NYT polling analyst, 538, also shows President Obama with an increased projected win in the electoral college
In Ohio, the Presidents polling average lead is now outside the margin of error at 5.6%.
This spate of positive polling in Ohio, has President Obama now projected to have a 86.1% chance of prevailing - a full 10% higher than last week
Of further concern to the Romney campaign will be that early voting in Ohio and elsewhere is either about to begin, or already underway. There are going to be fewer and fewer opportunities to change voters minds before their vote is locked in.
Talking Points Memo also notes that the weakening situation Mitt Romney is finding himself in, is having an effect down ticket too. Republicans were favored to take control of the Senate earlier in the year, that chance appears to be receding, as Democrats have now taken leads in a number of swing Senate races.
With just 6 weeks of campaigning left, the President continues to hold a strong position.
In the Electoral College, Real Clear Politics calculates that the President currently holds the edge with 247 votes to Mitt Romney's 191, an increase of 10 votes for the President since last week.
In Ohio, all polling continues to show the President with a small, but significant lead.
The NYT polling analyst, 538, also shows President Obama with a large projected win in the electoral college
In Ohio, President Obama is projected to have a 76.5% chance of prevailing - his largest margin to date.
Not included in these analysis is a just released poll by Ohio's newspapers, which showed the Presdient leading Mitt Romney 51-46. The very same poll also confirmed polling trends that Sen. Sherrod Brown leads Josh Mandel by a sizable margin 52-45
With the RNC and DNC conventions over, the clear winner, based on current polling, appears to be President Obama.
Let's take a look at the state of play. First, Real Clear Politics has the race essentially unchanged from last week, with President Obama having 221 electoral college votes to Mitt Romney's 191, 126 are listed as toss-ups
In Ohio, RCP has Obama's lead increasing from an average of 1.4% to 2.2%
538, whom we quoted up top, has the President's advantage increasing by 10 electoral college votes, and now stands at landslide levels of 318.8
In Ohio his chances of victory have also increased and now stand at 74.6%, up from 71.5 last week.
Crazy polling result of the day perhaps comes from a PPP poll of Ohio, where 15% of Ohio Republicans said Mitt Romney deserved more credit for the killing of Osama bin Laden.